Wishful thinking is an attitude or belief that something you want to happen will happen even though it is not likely or possible. The idea that the enemy will immediately surrender is nothing more than wishful thinking.
When the desire for something to be true is used in place of/or as evidence for the truthfulness of the claim. Wishful thinking, more as a cognitive bias than a logical fallacy, can also cause one to evaluate evidence very differently based on the desired outcome.
Logical Form:
I wish X were true.
Therefore, X is true.
Example #1:
I know in my heart of hearts that our home team will win the World Series.
Explanation: No, you don’t know that, and what the heck is your “heart of hearts” anyway? This is classic wishful thinking — wanting the home team to win so pretending that it is/has to be true.
Example #2:
I believe that when we die, we are all given new, young, perfect bodies, and we spend eternity with those whom we love. I can’t imagine the point of life if it all just ends when we die!
Explanation: The fact that one doesn’t like the idea of simply not existing is not evidence for the belief. Besides, nobody seemed to mind the eternity they didn’t exist before they were born.
Exception: When wishful thinking is expressed as a hope, wish, or prayer and no belief is formed as a result, then it is not a fallacy because no direct or indirect argument is being made.
I really hope that I don’t have to spend my eternity with my Aunt Edna, who really loved me, but she drove me nuts with her constant jabbering.
Tip: Wishing for something to be true is a powerful technique when and only when, a) you have influence on what it is you want to be true and b) you take action to make it come true — not just wish for it to be true.
Does conscious will drive our actions, or do our minds merely generate a false sense of being in control? In The Illusion of Conscious Will, Daniel Wegner argues for the latter view, giving numerous examples of how we can be mistaken about the role of conscious will in particular cases of human action.
Wegner, a psychologist who has done some interesting experiments concerning the role of willing in human behavior, points to numerous cases of mistaken beliefs—the belief that we have acted when we have not, or that we have not acted when we have. His examples include acts performed under hypnosis, virtual agents (including spirit possession and trance channeling), Ouija-board actions, other automatisms, dissociative personalities, phantom-limb experiences and a variety of special experimental arrangements and circumstances that he and his colleagues, among others, have created. He makes a very convincing case that we can be mistaken when we believe that our conscious will has, or has not, caused actions.
Figure 1. Competing models of Theory of Mind (ToM). Causal models of (a) rational ToM based
upon classic belief-desire psychology and (b) optimistic ToM that includes a direct “wishful thinking”
link between desires and beliefs.
Whether or not there actually is a direct effect of desires on beliefs, people might think
that there is and use this fact when reasoning about other people. That is to say, people’s
ToM might incorporate the wishful thinking link seen in Figure 1b. The direct influence of
desires on beliefs is a departure from classic belief–desire “folk” psychology, in which beliefs and desires are independent and jointly cause action (Figure 1a). Previous models of ToM
formalize belief–desire psychology into probabilistic models of action and belief formation.
According to Sam Izad, a chief marketing officer, wishful thinking is a cognitive bias that influences our decision-making process. It is the tendency to believe in the possibility of an outcome favorable to our desires and expectations, despite having little or no evidence to support it. Wishful thinking can lead to poor decision-making, as it often results in overconfidence, poor judgment, and irrational behavior. This article will explore how wishful thinking affects decision-making and provide strategies to overcome it.
Wishful thinking can manifest in various forms, from personal relationships to professional endeavors. In personal relationships, it can cause people to stay in unhealthy relationships or pursue people who are not interested in them. In professional endeavors, it can cause people to make poor business decisions or hold unrealistic expectations of their careers.
One of the most common areas where wishful thinking can affect decision-making is in goal setting. People often set unrealistic goals based on their desires rather than their abilities or circumstances. This can lead to frustration, disappointment, and a lack of motivation.
For example, imagine that someone wants to lose weight and aims to lose 20 pounds in one month. They may be ignoring important factors such as their current fitness level, their diet, and their daily routine. As a result, they may become frustrated and disappointed when they don’t achieve their goal, leading to a lack of motivation to continue pursuing their weight loss journey.
Another way wishful thinking can impact decision-making is through confirmation bias. Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, and remember information that confirms one’s pre-existing beliefs or expectations. This can lead to poor decision-making, as it can prevent people from considering alternative viewpoints or information that contradicts their beliefs.
For instance, imagine that someone believes that a particular political candidate will be good for the economy. They may selectively seek information supporting their belief while ignoring information contradicting it. As a result, they may need to make an informed decision based on incomplete or biased information.
Wishful thinking can also affect financial decision-making, as discussed in a previous article. People may make investment decisions based on their desires rather than realistic expectations, leading to financial losses. They may also create unrealistic budgets or pursue careers based on their hopes rather than reality, leading to financial instability.
So, how can we overcome wishful thinking in decision-making? Here are some strategies:
- Be aware of your biases: Recognize that everyone has biases and that they can affect your decision-making. Be aware of your biases and how they might influence your decision-making process.
- Gather information: Gather as much information as possible before making a decision. Consider alternative viewpoints and perspectives to ensure that you are making an informed decision.
- Be realistic: Be realistic about the potential outcomes of your decisions. Consider your abilities, circumstances, and limitations before setting goals or making decisions.
- Seek feedback: Seek feedback from trusted sources before making a decision. Get input from people who have experience in the area you are deciding about, or seek out objective third-party opinions.
- Practice mindfulness: Practice mindfulness and be present at the moment. This can help you become more aware of your thoughts and feelings and prevent wishful thinking from influencing your decisions.
In conclusion, wishful thinking can lead to poor decision-making in various areas of our lives. It is essential to be aware of our biases, gather information, be realistic, seek feedback, and practice mindfulness to overcome wishful thinking. By doing so, we can make more informed decisions that align with our goals and aspirations.
References
https://www.creativitypost.com/article/the_irony_of_wishful_thinking
https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/logicalfallacies/Wishful-Thinking