Is Russia involved in Niger coup through Wagner Group? Here’s what experts say

Devesh Kumar

Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has celebrated the coup and blamed the situation in Niger on the legacy of colonialism

The unrest in Niger is being watched closely by the world as the junta arrests senior politicians after overthrowing the democratically elected government. The development is a setback for the Western world and its crackdown on Islamist extremism in the region. This is the seventh military coup in West and Central Africa in the last three years. Notably, the Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has celebrated the coup and blamed the situation in Niger on the legacy of colonialism, as per CNN.

In the pro-junta rallies, many people were holding Russian flags, and anti-French slogans were raised. According to BBC, a Niger businessman proudly wore an outfit in the colors of the Russian flag. The hostility towards the West and inclination towards Russia is raising questions about the possible involvement of Russia in the coup.

Here’s how experts see Russia’s involvement in Niger

“Yes, there seems to be a great degree of instability in the entire region of Sahel where one by one we are looking at these coups happening and the instability spreading, the rise of the Islamist groups, etc. I think the role Wagner Group is playing is not evident but increasingly as France is getting blamed for mal-governance and not being able to manage Islamist groups, the void of being filled by the Wagner Group and in the guise of Wagner Group, Russia,” Professor Harsh V. Pant Vice President – Studies and Foreign Policy at Observer Research Foundation told LiveMint.

Professor Pant added that it the failure of democratic governments to deliver which is opening space of all kinds of groups to intervene in the functioning of the country. 

“It is not entirely clear how the entry of Russia in this part of the world helps whether in resolving the governance issues or in managing the Islamists, but I think the institutional failures of democratic governments to deliver is opening up the space for all kinds of groups to emerge and for groups like Wagner to play an important role. In that context perhaps the growing influence of Russia would not be a surprise in the region,” he added.

The experts pointed out that Niger coup demonstrates that Russia has a scenario for causing global instability that could threaten the international order for maintaining peace in the longer term. It is certain that the coup in Niger may jeopardise broader Western efforts to tackle Islamic extremism in Africa, they added. 

“Though the Wagner Group has praised the coup and sees it as a step towards independence from the West it’s crucial to remember that the Kremlin has voiced worries about the situation, particularly in response to the Wagner Group’s celebration of the coup. Despite this, it is important to keep in mind that the situation in Niger demonstrates that Russia has a scenario for causing global instability that could threaten the international order for maintaining peace in the longer term,” Dr. Rishi Gupta, Research Fellow, Asia Society Policy Institute said.

“At the same time, it is crucial to remember that Niger has been dealing with Islamist Extremism led by fighters affiliated with al-Qaeda and the Islamic State for years. It is hard to foresee how the coup in Niger will affect broader Western efforts to combat Islamic extremism in Africa, but it is certain that the coup in Niger may jeopardise broader Western efforts to tackle Islamic extremism in Africa. Also, the coup can result in a power vacuum that will be detrimental to the overall efforts of the security environment. With the present regime in Niger, the country will experience prolonged instability, and the Western countries and international organizations working towards combating Islamic extremism in Africa will face severe setbacks,” Dr. Gupta added.

‘Wagner Group wants to expand its presence in Africa’

“To my mind, Niger was colonized by the French, people there are fed up with French loot and plunder. Russia seems to be a favorable ally. In fact, Moscow is looking at the coup favorably. On the point of the Wagner group, it’s already pretty active in neighboring areas like Mali and wants to expand its presence in Africa. But I am not sure which side would emerge more powerful in future in Niger, whether it’s Putin or the Wagner group, only time will tell,” Dr. Martand Jha, Doctoral Fellow at Russian and Central Asian Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University said.

Source

https://www.livemint.com/